Labour’s Poll Collapse: Lower Than Corbyn’s Supposedly ‘Unelectable’ Days

Labour’s recent polling numbers have sunk to levels lower than when party moderates launched their coup against Jeremy Corbyn in 2016, exposing the reality that their opposition to him was more about ideology than pragmatism. The argument that Corbyn was “unelectable” was the foundation of the centrist challenge to his leadership, yet the very people who led that charge now find themselves overseeing an even steeper electoral decline.

Recent polling data from March 2025 shows that Labour has slumped to around 24%, with Reform UK gaining ground at 23%, and the Conservatives trailing at 22%. This marks a significant decline from Labour’s earlier strong position and suggests that a large portion of its disaffected voters are shifting to Reform UK rather than the Tories.

For comparison, at the height of the so-called ‘chicken coup’ against Corbyn in June-July 2016, Labour was polling at 27%, even in the face of a manufactured 'leadership crisis'. A December 2016 YouGov poll showed Labour at 24%, which at the time was described as disastrous.

But today, under Keir Starmer, the party is hitting similar or worse numbers - and no 'concerned' cabal of 'Labour' MPs is calling for his head, despite their hamfisted attempts to remove Corbyn under the guise of making Labour 'electable'.

All the centrist saboteurs succeeded in doing was losing Labour the 2017 General Election - and, of course, exposing the UK to 7 more years of Tory rule...

One of the most glaring reasons for Labour’s collapse is the public backlash against its recent benefit cuts, particularly those targeting disabled people. Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Spring Budget 2025 included major cuts to disability benefits, a move that has sparked outrage from both Labour’s traditional base and within its own ranks.

With an estimated 250,000 more people pushed into poverty, including 50,000 children, the policy has been widely condemned.

This has not only led to widespread public disillusionment but also created fractures within the Labour Party itself, with multiple MPs openly opposing the decision. Much like the Conservatives in 2015 under David Cameron, who faced a political backlash for their austerity measures, Labour now finds itself suffering similar consequences. The UN accused Cameron’s government of violating disabled people’s rights, and Labour is now following the same path, despite previously campaigning against austerity.

Labour’s current polling collapse is reminiscent of previous political blunders:

• David Cameron’s 2015 austerity cuts: The backlash from cuts to tax credits and disability benefits damaged the Conservatives’ credibility and contributed to later election struggles.

• New Labour’s 2004 and 2010 Tuition Fee Hikes: Labour alienated students and young voters when they introduced and then tripled tuition fees, leading to the rise of the Liberal Democrats as an alternative.

• Margaret Thatcher’s 1990 Poll Tax: The hugely unpopular Community Charge led to mass protests, riots, and ultimately her resignation.

  
  

The trend is clear: when a government implements policies that directly harm working-class and vulnerable communities, it faces an electoral price. Labour’s disability cuts are proving just as toxic as Cameron’s austerity or Thatcher’s poll tax.

The collapse in Labour’s polling compared to Corbyn’s time in office proves that the 2016 coup was never about electability - it was about ideology. If the so-called “moderates” had truly cared about pragmatic election strategy, they would not now be endorsing deeply unpopular policies that drive voters into the arms of Reform UK.

By mirroring Tory austerity, Starmer’s Labour has alienated its working-class base while failing to gain ground with centre-right voters. Reform UK, capitalising on Labour’s betrayal, is successfully positioning itself as the alternative to the political establishment, pulling away some disgruntled Labour voters in the process as right-wing populism fills the vacuum in response to the lack of a left-wing alternative.

That's the problem with relying on the right-wing vote to get into No 10 - it's liable to jump ship after the election when it thinks you're not quite fascist enough...

Having contrived to manipulate Starmer into the leadership, the eminence grise which now runs 'Labour' finds itself in the unenviable position of being too scared to oust him - the only people he IS popular with, it seems, are members of other parties which are picking up his voters left, right and centre.

Labour’s vote share is now as low as, or lower than, during Corbyn’s supposed ‘unelectable’ days, proving that the real battle within the party was never about winning elections—it was about crushing a left-wing movement. And in the process, Labour’s leadership is repeating the same political mistakes that led to the downfall of previous governments.

The lesson is clear: attacking the most vulnerable in society is not just morally indefensible, but politically self-destructive. Labour’s polling freefall is a direct result of its disability cuts, and unless it reverses course, it risks being remembered as the party that squandered its moment by embracing austerity instead of real change.