'Paddy Power' Picked The Wrong Horse?

It's starting to look as if Morgan McSweeney's favoured political horse may turn out to be a clapped out nag that's unlikely to stay the course - much like his predecessor Cummings, the supposed Irish wizard appears, increasingly obviously, to have backed a loser...

Sir Keir Starmer now faces a revolt from more than 100 of his own MPs over planned benefit cuts - reportedly 42 have already told him they will vote against; many others look set to abstain.

Recent weeks have seen dozens of council resignations, and a shock by-election loss by six votes to Reform UK in Runcorn - the first non-Labour MP elected there in over 50 years – and bookies make him 7/1 to be replaced as Labour leader before the end of 2025 and 3/1 not to be Prime Minister by year-end.

His popularity ratings, flagging even just months after the General Election, have tanked even further since the massive cuts were announced. Polling in February showed him to have a net approval rating of -18, with 48% of the country disapproving - now, just months later, he'd surely beg for 'just -18'.

More than half (52%) now disapprove, and his net approval rating is down to -29. Only his chosen Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is more hated on 55%, with a net approval of -40 - but there again, it was Starmer who inflicted her on the country, so...

Imagine this being 'the good old days' compared to Starmer's rock-bottom ratings now...

Labour’s drift towards stringent welfare reforms has sparked open defiance. Ministers plan to tighten Personal Independence Payment rules from November, a move set to strip support from many disabled people and cost carers their £80 weekly stipend.

More than half of claimants over 40 would lose eligibility under new criteria, according to the government's own figures, and a planned £1 billion jobs programme would aid only a fraction of those affected.

Backbenchers say they cannot support what they see as cuts at the expense of the vulnerable. “The whole policy is wrong,” warned MP Rachael Maskell of York, one of dozens pledging to vote against or abstain when reforms reach the Commons in June.

Even Runcorn's outgoing MP Mike Amesbury, who resigned after being convicted of assault, said Reform had been the 'beneficiaries' of government mistakes in cutting Winter Fuel Payments and disability benefits.

"Obviously my mistake gave people the opportunity to vote in a by-election, but overturning nearly a 15,000 vote majority is not simply on my shoulders" he said a few days ago.

That unrest has spread beyond Westminster. In Dudley, a long-standing councillor quit in protest, and 20 Labour members in Broxtowe left the party over what they called an abandonment of core values and a heavy-handed leadership style.

Experts warn that Starmer’s dilemma echoes global precedents. In France, mass strikes erupted over pension reforms under President Macron in 2019, and US Democrats endured high-profile rebellions from Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema over social spending, stalling President Biden’s Build Back Better agenda. Professor John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde notes that “a centrist course can alienate both core supporters and hesitant voters”.

Conservatives and Reform UK contend that Labour has lost its moral compass. Kemi Badenoch argues that trimming universal winter fuel payments is a tough but necessary choice to secure economic stability, a view echoed by some centrist thinkers.

Yet two-thirds of the public back a reversal, with unions and the Welsh government leading calls to restore support for pensioners.

With odds shortening that Starmer will step down as leader before 2026 and that he will not serve as Prime Minister for long, the bookies signal waning confidence. For a party founded on social justice, resisting its critics risks not only fragmenting its core base but handing ground to a surge of right-wing populism.

Starmer must decide whether to soften his stance or stand firm, knowing that history favours bold revision over cautious compromise – and that the next election may hinge on which path he chooses.

That's if he makes it that far..

We're absolutely sure he was just nipping off for a weekend break...

NB: Semi-spoof - that isn't Starmer sneaking away from No. 10; surely he would've used the back door. Also as far as we are aware, Morgan McSweeney hasn't put any bets on Starmer staying in power so long - after all, who would?